Selasa, 21 Juni 2011

FOREX INTRADAY SNAPSHOT

EUR/USD

The recovery off 1.4073 extends, to create room for more gains towards 1.4457. The probe above 1.4339 during Monday's Asian session confirms a higher low at 1.4191, and there is scope above 1.4457 for the June 14 lower high at 1.4498. To put EUR bears back in control, a push below 1.4236 is required, exposing 1.4191 and bringing the June 16 reaction low at 1.4073 back into the picture.

GBP/USD
Corrects higher towards resistance at 1.6260 and the more important 1.6301 level. However, GBP bears dominate the medium-term trend and 1.6301 needs to remain intact in order to keep the wider bear threat valid. A push below 1.6170 would spark further weakness towards 1.6109 and the June 16 reaction low at 1.6079. Only a sustained break above 1.6301 would extend recovery scope to 1.6375 and the June 14 high at 1.6440.

USD/JPY
Action has become rangebound between 80.01 and Monday's high at 80.37. However, last week's bear hammer candle puts USD bears in control, and the sharpness of the setback off 81.08 suggests a downside resolution below 80.01 should be favoured at this stage. A break below 80.01 would expose the June 8 reaction low at 79.69, and enhance the longer-term threat for weakness to the 78.54 area. A recovery above 80.37 would provide temporary respite, but only a sustained break above short-term pivotal resistance at 80.48 would lift the tone, opening 80.67.

AUD/USD
Trades within a three-day bear pennant continuation pattern, and the focus of attention is on the 1.0478/95 lows. A downside break is expected to expose the May 25 reaction low at 1.0441, and scope exists for targets at 1.0378 and 1.0325. A push above 1.0617 is required to negate the bearish AUD outlook, opening 1.0635 and 1.0717.

Forex Focus
Investor optimism that Greece will resolve its debt issues without a default and without destroying the euro may be a fine thing. This is helping to preserve long speculative positions in the currency and keeping the euro buoyant. But, in the long run, the euro could pay a nasty price. Instead of facing a steady orderly decline in the face of a Greek disaster, the single currency is now more likely to experience a rout as investors all rush for the door at once. Over the last few days, the euro has displayed an amazing resilience that has surprised forecasters. Instead of falling on fears of political developments in Greece, the currency has actually risen on the assumption that having won a no confidence vote in parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will also get approval for his EUR28 billion austerity plan a week from now. There appears to be little recognition of the political risks that exist between now and then as the country still shows little appetite for further fiscal tightening. So even in Papandreou does get his austerity measure through, and avoids a general election, there is no reassurance that those measures will actually be implemented. And that is just on the Greek side. As we have seen in recent weeks, international policy coordination among the troika of institutions that are helping Greece is becoming more difficult at a time when the bailouts are becoming much harder. Even if the International Monetary Fund does cave in and provides its share of the latest funding requirement without full assurances from the European Union about Greece's ability to meet its debt obligations over the next 12 months, there is now the issue of how to stop credit rating agencies from calling Greece in default if the EU goes ahead with plans to restructure private bond holdings on a 'voluntary' basis. Then, of course, there is the matter of how that 'voluntary' restructuring will be negotiated. Some of that roll over could look a lot less 'voluntary' than the optimists are hoping right now.

Europe
The euro mostly clung onto its overnight gains in European trading Tuesday, overcoming a brief wobble after soft German economic data, as traders looked ahead to a pivotal Greek parliamentary vote, a vital step that will shape the outcome of the country's debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in parliament around 2100 GMT, which, if successful, should pave the way to parliamentary approval of the new austerity measures in a separate vote expected later this month. "This crucial vote is likely to determine not only the fate of the Greek government, but indeed the fate of the Greek bailout package," said BNP Paribas in a note to clients. "Our view is that the government passes this test." The country must approve a new, five-year EUR28 billion austerity program and related privatization plan in order for it to receive a second aid package and the next quarterly disbursement of its existing loan from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Although the euro was trading in the black against the dollar throughout the session, continued uncertainty meant the currency was paralyzed at the start of London trading hours, before springing back to life after the release of a weaker-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment indicator.

Asia
The euro rose modestly against the dollar and yen in Asia Tuesday as concerns over Greek debt ebbed slightly, but the common currency remained vulnerable ahead of a vote of confidence for Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou later in the day. While many dealers expect the vote to pass, any signs of fresh political uncertainty would add to concerns about the country's sovereign debt crisis, likely pushing the euro down further. The government must pass new austerity measures, scheduled for a parliamentary vote next Tuesday, in order to receive its next installment of aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. "The euro likely won't add that much to its gains over the rest of the day before the Greek vote, as market participants take a wait-and-see approach," said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of foreign exchange trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The euro tripped stop-loss buying orders against the dollar and yen, after comments from Papandreou reported early in Asia that he is seeking the "widest possible consensus" for budget cuts. Dealers said the remarks added to the guarded view that an immediate worsening of the crisis could be avoided, after European leaders expressed confidence Monday that Greece would indeed opt for more austerity measures.

World
The euro was little changed Monday in New York, but investors remain wary as the Greek debt situation remains unsettled. The single currency came under selling pressure after euro-zone finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg failed to reach a long-term agreement on Greece's funding needs. That turned the spotlight on the Greek government, which is facing a crucial confidence vote on Tuesday and a vote next week on an unpopular austerity plan. Failure to pass that plan could potentially throw the euro zone into chaos. The euro reversed its losses a bit after leaders agreed to increase the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to EUR440 billion, which provides a lifeline to the euro zone's most distressed economies. Underscoring fears that a Greek default or restructuring could have repercussions even outside the euro zone, France initiated two teleconference calls among the Group of Seven nations to discuss the implications of a potential Greek debt default. "You do need to reduce Greece's debt burden, but you also need to avoid having a cascading effect through global financial institutions," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds. European leaders must achieve "a package of things" to revamp Greece's ballooning debt, Webman said. "The objective is to keep the global financial system working, and hold the euro zone together."
EUR/USD

The recovery off 1.4073 extends, to create room for more gains towards 1.4457. The probe above 1.4339 during Monday's Asian session confirms a higher low at 1.4191, and there is scope above 1.4457 for the June 14 lower high at 1.4498. To put EUR bears back in control, a push below 1.4236 is required, exposing 1.4191 and bringing the June 16 reaction low at 1.4073 back into the picture.

GBP/USD
Corrects higher towards resistance at 1.6260 and the more important 1.6301 level. However, GBP bears dominate the medium-term trend and 1.6301 needs to remain intact in order to keep the wider bear threat valid. A push below 1.6170 would spark further weakness towards 1.6109 and the June 16 reaction low at 1.6079. Only a sustained break above 1.6301 would extend recovery scope to 1.6375 and the June 14 high at 1.6440.

USD/JPY
Action has become rangebound between 80.01 and Monday's high at 80.37. However, last week's bear hammer candle puts USD bears in control, and the sharpness of the setback off 81.08 suggests a downside resolution below 80.01 should be favoured at this stage. A break below 80.01 would expose the June 8 reaction low at 79.69, and enhance the longer-term threat for weakness to the 78.54 area. A recovery above 80.37 would provide temporary respite, but only a sustained break above short-term pivotal resistance at 80.48 would lift the tone, opening 80.67.

AUD/USD
Trades within a three-day bear pennant continuation pattern, and the focus of attention is on the 1.0478/95 lows. A downside break is expected to expose the May 25 reaction low at 1.0441, and scope exists for targets at 1.0378 and 1.0325. A push above 1.0617 is required to negate the bearish AUD outlook, opening 1.0635 and 1.0717.

Forex Focus
Investor optimism that Greece will resolve its debt issues without a default and without destroying the euro may be a fine thing. This is helping to preserve long speculative positions in the currency and keeping the euro buoyant. But, in the long run, the euro could pay a nasty price. Instead of facing a steady orderly decline in the face of a Greek disaster, the single currency is now more likely to experience a rout as investors all rush for the door at once. Over the last few days, the euro has displayed an amazing resilience that has surprised forecasters. Instead of falling on fears of political developments in Greece, the currency has actually risen on the assumption that having won a no confidence vote in parliament, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will also get approval for his EUR28 billion austerity plan a week from now. There appears to be little recognition of the political risks that exist between now and then as the country still shows little appetite for further fiscal tightening. So even in Papandreou does get his austerity measure through, and avoids a general election, there is no reassurance that those measures will actually be implemented. And that is just on the Greek side. As we have seen in recent weeks, international policy coordination among the troika of institutions that are helping Greece is becoming more difficult at a time when the bailouts are becoming much harder. Even if the International Monetary Fund does cave in and provides its share of the latest funding requirement without full assurances from the European Union about Greece's ability to meet its debt obligations over the next 12 months, there is now the issue of how to stop credit rating agencies from calling Greece in default if the EU goes ahead with plans to restructure private bond holdings on a 'voluntary' basis. Then, of course, there is the matter of how that 'voluntary' restructuring will be negotiated. Some of that roll over could look a lot less 'voluntary' than the optimists are hoping right now.

Europe
The euro mostly clung onto its overnight gains in European trading Tuesday, overcoming a brief wobble after soft German economic data, as traders looked ahead to a pivotal Greek parliamentary vote, a vital step that will shape the outcome of the country's debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in parliament around 2100 GMT, which, if successful, should pave the way to parliamentary approval of the new austerity measures in a separate vote expected later this month. "This crucial vote is likely to determine not only the fate of the Greek government, but indeed the fate of the Greek bailout package," said BNP Paribas in a note to clients. "Our view is that the government passes this test." The country must approve a new, five-year EUR28 billion austerity program and related privatization plan in order for it to receive a second aid package and the next quarterly disbursement of its existing loan from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Although the euro was trading in the black against the dollar throughout the session, continued uncertainty meant the currency was paralyzed at the start of London trading hours, before springing back to life after the release of a weaker-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment indicator.

Asia
The euro rose modestly against the dollar and yen in Asia Tuesday as concerns over Greek debt ebbed slightly, but the common currency remained vulnerable ahead of a vote of confidence for Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou later in the day. While many dealers expect the vote to pass, any signs of fresh political uncertainty would add to concerns about the country's sovereign debt crisis, likely pushing the euro down further. The government must pass new austerity measures, scheduled for a parliamentary vote next Tuesday, in order to receive its next installment of aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. "The euro likely won't add that much to its gains over the rest of the day before the Greek vote, as market participants take a wait-and-see approach," said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of foreign exchange trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The euro tripped stop-loss buying orders against the dollar and yen, after comments from Papandreou reported early in Asia that he is seeking the "widest possible consensus" for budget cuts. Dealers said the remarks added to the guarded view that an immediate worsening of the crisis could be avoided, after European leaders expressed confidence Monday that Greece would indeed opt for more austerity measures.

World
The euro was little changed Monday in New York, but investors remain wary as the Greek debt situation remains unsettled. The single currency came under selling pressure after euro-zone finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg failed to reach a long-term agreement on Greece's funding needs. That turned the spotlight on the Greek government, which is facing a crucial confidence vote on Tuesday and a vote next week on an unpopular austerity plan. Failure to pass that plan could potentially throw the euro zone into chaos. The euro reversed its losses a bit after leaders agreed to increase the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to EUR440 billion, which provides a lifeline to the euro zone's most distressed economies. Underscoring fears that a Greek default or restructuring could have repercussions even outside the euro zone, France initiated two teleconference calls among the Group of Seven nations to discuss the implications of a potential Greek debt default. "You do need to reduce Greece's debt burden, but you also need to avoid having a cascading effect through global financial institutions," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds. European leaders must achieve "a package of things" to revamp Greece's ballooning debt, Webman said. "The objective is to keep the global financial system working, and hold the euro zone together."